:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Apr 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2017 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2017

            Apr 04     Apr 05     Apr 06
00-03UT        2          3          2     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2017

              Apr 04  Apr 05  Apr 06
S1 or greater   25%     25%     15%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm on days one and two (04-05 Apr) and a slight chance on
day three (06 Apr).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 03 2017 at 1429 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2017

              Apr 04        Apr 05        Apr 06
R1-R2           70%           50%           35%
R3 or greater   25%           15%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on day one
(04 Apr) with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts. On days two and
three (05-06 Apr) there will be a chance for R1-R2 radio blackouts and a
slight chance for R3 or greater radio blackouts.